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Sunday, September 24, 2006

DOE Report

A new report put out by the U.S. DOE has inspired a fresh perspective or two:
Bloomburg News reported that the Energy Department study found that conventional oil production reached "soft and sudden" peaks in Texas in 1972, North America in 1985, Great Britain in 1999 and Norway in 2001. These dates were predicted by formulas used by proponents of the peak oil theory to predict the crest of global oil production.
I predict the wingnuts will start anti-formula campaigns in the not-too-distant future to help the cornucopians out.

Hmmm, just a seasonal adjustment, a loss-prevention measure, or a genuine decline?
Preliminary data from tanker tracker Petrologistics showed Opec pumped 400 000 barrels per day less crude so far in September, compared with the whole of last month, on lower production from the group’s top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Professor Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Opec pumped 400 000 barrels per day less crude so far in September"

Could it be that Saudi Arabia and Iran have instituted the equivalent of Walmart's RFID / Just-In=Time inventory control systems and have thus signalled to the world what many of us in business already know: a massive slowdown is in the early stages.

China has put the brakes on production and consumption, tying in with the slowdown over here, as a result of the fast receding housing boom. China knows that we won't be shopping quite as much as we have in the past. The problem is, most folks over here don't have a clue as to what's coming down the pike. The dollar will eventually collapse on world currency exchanges because China won't be selling as much into our markets. Presently, China uses some of the the proceeds from our purchaes and buys U.S. gov't paper - the biggest vendor financing scheme ever. China is still buying our paper, ie. funding our trade and fiscal deficits, but when bond prices stop going up (as they are doing presently), watch out for falling dollars.

The 'authorities' will have two choices at that point: (1) raise interest rates to make the dollar more attractive to foreigners, or (2) let the dollar collapse and watch inflation soar (because imported goods will become more expensive). Not great choices, and I believe Bush will choose door number 2.

8:10 PM  

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