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Thursday, November 17, 2005

Oil Depletion Model posts

--Updated Entry located here --

This blog entry contains the oil depletion modeling posts that I have written over the last few months. By and large, I have proceeded from a micro world view to a macro view, while adding interesting details that help me gain insight into how other mathematically-inclined people understand our current Peak Oil predicament.
A Micro Peak Oil Model
Part 1 | Part 2 -- Stochastic analysis on the small scale

A Macro Peak Oil Model
Part 1 | Part 2 -- Stochastic analysis on the large scale

Oil Shock Model
Intro | Continuous -- How disturbances affect depletion
RC Circuit (CAD simulation) -- Analogies to other processes
Code -- Generalized oil shock model program source code

And I have several posts which criticize the traditional Logistic1 curve but use the insight from the macro models as justification.
Issues with the Traditional Hubbert Model
Logistic vs Macro | Logistically Impossible | Logistic Curve Derivation | The Gamma Distribution

On more recent posts, I have tried my hand at fitting the shock model to historical stimulus and response data.
Fits to shock model using discovery data
Global using ASPO data (follow-up)
USA lower-48
UK North Sea
Former Soviet Union
What ifs?
Can we delay peak by upping the extraction rate?
Supporting information
Ramp-up data

1Wherever I say logistics, I mean logistic; probably due to too many years dealing with loggies at work. :)


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