More Songs About Oil and Gas
--Update: A Pilgrim's Progress--
I have several objectives for my approach to modeling fossil fuel depletion, any one of which I don't mind achieving.
- Introducing something fundamentally new to the discussion.
- Going beyond the heuristics and empirical relationships that I see plastered everywhere, to an approach mathematically-inclined people can understand (the rub).
- Resurrecting some old but perhaps forgotten techniques buried in the literature (so far nothing has shown up, or has it?).
- Showing analogies to other physical processes, like an RC circuit in electronics or a 1st order damped system in mechanical dynamics.
- Using the formulation to historically analyze or make predictions based on current data.
- Demonstrate an alternative to and weaknesses of the conventional approaches such as the logistic curve and gaussian (questioning empiricism).
- Come up with an open-source modeling environment, where I can make all source code and data available to the public.
So this blog entry once again contains categorized oil depletion modeling posts that I have written over the last half-year. By and large, I have proceeded from a micro world view to a macro view, while adding interesting details that help me gain insight into how other mathematically-inclined people understand our current Peak Oil predicament.
- A Micro Peak Oil Model
- Part 1 | Part 2 -- Stochastic analysis on the small scale
- A Macro Peak Oil Model
- Part 1 | Part 2 -- Stochastic analysis on the large scale
- The Oil Shock Model
- Intro | Continuous -- How disturbances affect depletion
RC Circuit (CAD simulation) -- Analogies to other processes
Code -- Generalized oil shock model program source code
And I have several posts which criticize the traditional Logistic curve but use the insight from the macro models as justification.
- Issues with the Traditional Hubbert Model
- Logistic vs Macro | Logistically Impossible | Logistic Curve Derivation | The Gamma Distribution | Peak Symmetry | Hubbert Linearization | Shock Model Linearization
Interspersed among the posts on mathematical formulation, I have tried my hand at fitting the shock model to historical stimulus and response data.
- Fits to shock model using discovery data
- Global using ASPO data (follow-up)
USA lower-48 (early Historical Fit)
UK North Sea (followup)
Former Soviet Union
Canada -- Weyburn
New Zealand Natural Gas, cliff
- What ifs?
- Can we delay peak by upping the extraction rate?
Calculating TOP (The Overshoot Point)
Monte Carlo Discoveries
- Supporting information
- Ramp-up data
Finally, some posts on the battles I have had with knowledgeable oil depletion deniers.