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Saturday, October 08, 2005

Electrical Shock

I tinkered some more with the schematic circuit analogy trying to generalize it to the oil shock model, and came up with this:

I don't have the shocks in there yet, but I wanted to initially try to demonstrate the effects of stochastic latencies that I first used in a Micro peak oil model, and then extended to an analysis using historical discovery data.

I used a freeware CAD tool / SPICE simulator1 to create the schematic and generate the response curve:

Purple: Discovery forcing function
Cyan:"Fallow phase" response, C1=8.
Red: "Build phase" response, C2=8.
Blue: "Maturation phase" response, C3=8.
Green: Production output, C4=16.

Read the x-axis coodinates as years instead of seconds, and it starts to make sense, i.e. 60s stands for the 1960's. The odd-looking schematic symbol connecting the RC meshes signifies a voltage to current generator which serves to isolate them, and by analogy to a stochastic system, makes them statistically independent. (The staging reminds me of a bit of the Bucket Brigade Devices used in flangers and reverbs. We are in the echo chamber of the original oil strikes.)

And if all this puzzles you, just remember the cry from Soylent Green: "electrons is OIL!!!!"

1Many semiconductor companies give away SPICE simulators in the hopes that engineers will buy their discrete or IC components. Linear Technologies sells one called LTSPICE/SwitcherCADIII which I used. see also www.groups.yahoo.com/ltspice.


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