[[ Check out my Wordpress blog Context/Earth for environmental and energy topics tied together in a semantic web framework ]]

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Romania Oil Shock Model

Based on some intriguing results that Staniford posted at TOD regarding historical Romanian oil production, I thought I would compare it against the oil shock model. Staniford plotted against the production data (shown below), and effectively fit to the Hubbert Linearization method assuming a Gaussian shape.

This curve looks similar to one that Laherrere published (which also includes estimates of discoveries) :

(aside: note that Laherrere's discovery curve tries to "connect the dots" between years of discoveries, which has the unfortunate effect of indicating more earlier discoveries than are warranted; check his cumulative curve to get the right data)

As I mentioned on TOD's comment page, the model I use derives completely from stochastic considerations and so would generally apply more caution for someplace like Romania (or worse yet, France) as I worry about overlooking the heavy influence of deterministic effects. This comes about from a small sample size in these countries and asking whether one should apply to the maximum entropy estimator of equating the mean to the standard deviation on the rate random variables. In addition, since the Romania data crosses through a sweet spot that includes the years of WW2, one could imagine a huge perturbation occurring during that time.

In any case, I tried to keep the model as simple as possible and used means of 6 years for the fallow, construction, and maturation periods, and a 16.66% depletion rate for extraction (also corresponding to a 6 year 1/e time).

The oil shock model misses the actual reported peak by a lag of less than 5 years, but does catch up on the down slope. Earlier on in the production life cycle, the model does predict the two other significant peaks (corresponding to discovery deltas), but both the location and scaling remains way off. It almost looks as if much of the very early discovery estimates either did not deliver as much oil as predicted or, less likely, went to waste for whatever reason. Based on Laherrere's analysis that the cumulative oil production has not matched that from discoveries (see below), it would not surprise me if the "missing-in-action" pre-1900 discoveries account for the discrepancy.


Professor Blogger Big Gav said...

I always enjoy the periodic reappearance of your models.

I don't think you've ever done an Australian version - feel like giving one a workout ?

5:29 AM  
Professor Blogger WHT said...

The closest I have come is New Zealand natural gas.

The main thing is getting good discovery data or estimates. I could try without the data (which seems lacking in Oz), but then take it with a grain of salt.

10:08 PM  
Professor Anonymous cat said...

best site

9:12 PM  
Professor Anonymous Lindsay Lohan said...

bes tsite

9:13 PM  
Professor Anonymous lingeries said...

best site

9:16 PM  
Professor Anonymous lingeriesshop said...

Lingeries Office lingeries office lingeries office womens lingeries lingeries pic
Hot Lingerieshot lingeries lingeries office womens lingeries lingeries pic,

11:06 AM  
Professor Anonymous wow power leveling said...

Why was there no follow on bankruptcy then? The bailout of AIG FP went to (wow power leveling) hedge funds that bound credit swaps on Lehman failing or others betting on rating (wow power leveling) declines. AIG has drained over 100 billion from the government. Which had to go to those who bet on failures and downgrades. Many of whom (power leveling)were hedge funds. I-banks that had offsetting swaps needed the money from the AIG bailout or they would have been caught. Its an (wow powerleveling) insiders game and it takes just a little bit too much time for most people to think (wow gold) through where the AIG 100 billion bailout money went to, hedge funds and players, many of whom hire from the top ranks of DOJ, Fed, Treasury, CAOBO
wow goldwow goldwow goldwow gold CAOBO

6:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

"Like strange bulldogs sniffing each other's butts, you could sense wariness from both sides"