Mearns at TOD penned an extensive review of the UK North Sea oil production decline along with some of his own models.
I placed the oil shock model from August 2005 on top of his TOD chart below:
The future bumps in some of Mearns model predictions come from new fields coming on line such as the Buzzard field discovered in 2001. This one barely got included in the discovery input for the oil shock model, but more recent discoveries such as Rosewood/Lochnagar in 2004 have not. The North Sea oil region more than anywhere else demonstrates how new discoveries remain the only way to halt the inexorable decline.