Norway Cliff ?
A couple of months ago I posted an oil shock model fit to the Norway production curve. Some very recent data coming in from the Petroleum Directorate of Norway reinforces the model's prediction of a rapid and steep decline in production.
OSLO - Norwegian crude production in February was down 18%, or 528,000 barrels a day, compared with February 2004, the Petroleum Directorate said Thursday.When overlay plotted on the previous model, it looks grim, even if we account for any calibration offset.
February crude production totaled at 2.46 million b/d, compared with 2.988 million b/d in the same month of 2004.
Projections of 2.64 million b/d in the 2007 and 2008 forecasts probably won't deter the slide much.
It forecasts average production in 2006 at 2.43 million b/d rising to 2.64 million b/d in 2007.
Mathiesen said reserves grew by 975 million barrels of oil equivalent last year, with development of discoveries being approved and increased oil recovery projects.
A production average of 2.64 million b/d is also forecast for 2008.