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Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Peak Oil Blimp

For some reason, the above image posted in comments at The Oil Drum for Staniford's latest article seems ominously fitting. In any case, Stuart lists a bunch of pieces of circumstantial evidence pointing to a peak right now.
  • There's a very good chance claimed OPEC reserves are exaggerated.
  • World production stopped increasing in late 2004.
  • Decline rates of existing production are very high
  • Hubbert Linearization points to peak oil
  • At least one major oil company is warning us (of peak)
  • The price of oil keeps going up.
  • There is no evidence of Saudi spare capacity
  • There are geopolitical and climatic risks to the existing production level
The global oil shock model shows the same peak based on past discovery data. The cusp drops off like this assuming extraction rates don't continue to ramp up near term, while a continuing ramp-up will round the peak, either extending it a few years or creating a plateau, with an impending cliff highly likely. This also assumes that no oil company makes sudden large discoveries that come on-line quickly.

Any takers on when will we hear this sound bite from Bush, "I don't think anybody anticipated the peak of the oil". Get ready wingnut apologists, for semantically arguing the meaning of "overtopped". Sheezus, no such thing as a bad rationalization in the party of the Bush 'minionists.


Professor Anonymous Anonymous said...

of the notable individuals talking about peak oil, my favorite subgroup is the texas republican friends of bush, led by matt simmons, t. boone pickens, and richard rainwater.

for some reason people have found it easy to dismiss the geologists and other scientists (deffeyes, campbell, youngquist, duncan, et al), as if they're a bunch of quacks. the wsj in its article on campbell a year or so ago couldn't resist inserting the word "crackpot" somewhere in the text.

i think most of the elites know what's up and always have, and the plan for the rest of us is to let what happens happen. spreading the word is not part of the plan. as the word inevitably spreads on the basis of its own truth content, they play rope-a-dope to take the edge off the message.

6:19 AM  
Professor Anonymous Anonymous said...

That elites have always known "what's up" may be true but, at the same time, I can't help but give a nod to Chomsky's assertion that educated elites may also be the most indoctrinated. A little truth can stimulate a little anxiety. Festinger's cognitive dissonance must also surely come into play, here. Ah, the beauty of an avoidance contingency and the power of negative reinforcement.

11:40 PM  

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