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Saturday, January 01, 2005

Peak Oil Board

An exchange from the Peak Oil Message Board that I commented on.
linlithgowoil wrote:
i think their outlook is spot on, possibly even too conservative. i expect oil production to increase until at least 2050, possibly into the next century.
Care to elaborate on that?
I believe that we have barely even used a quarter of the oil on the planet - probably less than a tenth if you include non conventional oils.

its going to be so sweet when, year after year, oil production increases... i look forward to visiting here every year or so to see how it is explained away... [Very Happy]

weird anyway, imagine a bunch of folk getting together to act like ghouls over the end of civilization as we know it. what is wrong with you people? are you the kind of folk that like to watch snuff films or something?

face facts, human beings are masters of the earth and the human mind is the ultimate resource. the human mind can come up with a solution to anything.

oh, and yes, i do believe in the second coming as im a catholic - in common with at least 1/6th of the population of the world. just because you are totally cynical and jaded and dont believe in anything, doesnt make other people's beilefs invalid. i think you'll find that most people, when faced with disaster, will turn to God... and rightly so - He is the way, the life and the truth.


the thing is, the status quo doesnt matter. things will happen in the years to come that no one can predict. i imagine that, alternative fuels with government support, breakthroughs in fuel efficiency, wonderful new ways of harnessing hydrogen, and efficiency progress in oil use/extraction will all combine to make the so called crisis nothing of the sort.

i believe that the peak in oil production will be meaningless. it will occur later than 2030 - probably 2050, and by then, we will be using far more alternative resources anyway as they will be far cheaper.

i really dont see what the problem is. the human race iwll not run out of energy. mark my words. in 10 years time and thereafter, we will be using and harnessing more and more energy than before.

Seriously, maybe we shouldn't waste our time dealing with the trolls on this board. Personally, I have no interest at all in the doomsday scenarios that may/may not arise in the future. What I am interested in is awareness. I have followed oil depletion issues since I was a teenager in the 70's, when I spent lots of my time reading fishing magazines. Curiously, one fishing magazine had a very prescient publisher who wrote some very compelling editorials on the future of oil. Since that time, nothing has changed from the predicted timetable and I have retained awareness of these issues in my own mind. Try and look, you will find no skeptics amongst the professional and serious-minded skeptics organizations out there. Don't think they would avoid something as meaty as the denunciation of oil depletion scare tactics. In a way, this might work against raising awareness. Just imagine if there was a UFO-like element to our predicament; it might actually raise awareness among the illiterati out there. Abiotic oil is the fringe idea that comes closest to meeting the needs of the fundies and Art Bell contingent out there. We might get some real red/blue arguments going to raise political blood pressures. But when all is said and done, we have to face up to the objectivity of the arguments and denounce ideas that don't reflect the harsh reality.

It's kind of hard to understand where people like linltithhgowloil are coming from. Apparently, to them, technology will supposedly save us in the end. Yet technology has never automatically saved us in the past; even the effort leading to the moon landing needed a kick in the pants in the from of exhoratations from JFK to get us moving. So when will the clownish Bush administration, if ever, take a stand and deliver a new clarion call to the masses?

James Earl Carter was on the right path. But when Ronald Wilson Reagan666 came in and first thing took down the solar collectors from the White House, it set the stage for a 25 year slide to where we are at right now.



Professor Blogger monkeygrinder said...

This gets at one of the interesting things about us gussied up chimps.

We believe what we wanna. When I grapple with my bias, the bias usually wins.

Evidence doesn't help, but a punch to the gut might.

Peak Oil Awareness will spread with the blackouts, or in response to South American melons rotting at port, because they are too expensive to truck to Safeway. Where are my gd cantaloupes?

I work near the Port of Seattle, and when they open a sea bridge up for 15 minutes to let a transport ship through, there is a backed up line of 50 trucks from one terminal. This is the heartbeat of our way of life.

1:26 AM  
Professor Blogger WHT said...

Your eyes: they no lie.

Somewhere else I heard somebody comment on canned food from China. Apparently much of the "tin" is recycled from Russian military scrap heaps. Non-confirmable of course.

2:17 PM  
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