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Thursday, December 30, 2004

Bossie the Cow

In comparison to the recently released oil shale report, the 2004 International Energy Outlook crafted by the DOE is, as the poster Smiley said to the Peak Oil board, wildly optimistic.

The roots of the optimism rest in Appendix D of the report. No signs of oil depletion on the horizon, according to the charts and tables. Somebody had to have tabulated the projection. How did this happen?

(fade to a D.C. back-room, preparing for next year's report)

Boss: I want these numbers to match needed production values of over 120 Million barrels of oil per day by the year 2025.

Analyst: But boss, I have no basis to make any trends. None of the numbers make sense, and all the countries on the list appear to make up stuff.

Boss: Don't worry about it. Just ramp up the numbers in the cases we have the most confidence in and have been historically big producers. All you have to do is make sure that the endpoints match and all the intermediate points sum correctly.

Analyst: Thanks for the advice. For a minute there, I thought I would have to do some real work.

Boss: By the way, when you are done with that, I have another job for you.

Analyst: What up?

Boss: Estimate the number of fatalities for the south Asia earthquake.

Analyst: Okie-Dokie! That one's easy. I'll just pull it out of my butt.