Fallback

From Tiny Revolution, I have come to understand the art of the fallback position.

Example

1. Iraq has terrifying WMD. 2. Iraq doesn't have terrifying WMD because they were moved to Syria. 3. Iraq doesn't have terrifying WMD and they weren't moved to Syria, but it's not our fault because everyone thought they had WMD. 4. Iraq doesn't have terrifying WMD and they weren't moved to Syria and not everyone thought they had WMD, but we were fooled because even Saddam thought they had WMD. 5. Iraq doesn't have terrifying WMD and they weren't moved to Syria and not everyone thought they had WMD and Saddam didn't think they had WMD, but Iraq would have had them after two seconds if we'd turned our backs. 6. Michael Moore ate the WMD.

Let me try my hand in explaining the fallback position with respect to oil policies. Since discussions on oil have carried on for a longer time, I will add a rough chronology.

1. 1950: USA will never run out of oil.
   


2. 1960: USA will never run out of oil, and don't trust the occasional wacky geologist.
   


3. 1970: The USA may run out of oil, but we can always rely on the middle-east for oil.
   


4. 1975: Even though the USA may run out of oil and although we can't always rely on the middle-east, market considerations can throttle our consumption.
   


5. 1980: Even though the USA may run out of oil and although we can't always rely on the middle-east nor the market, we can always look for energy efficiency.
   


6. 1985: Even though the USA may run out of oil and although we can't always rely on the middle-east nor the market nor efficiency, we can always look for oil in new unconventional places like the ocean.
   


7. 1990: Even though the USA may run out of oil and although we can't always rely on the middle-east nor the market nor efficiency nor new sources, we can always try to get better access to the middle-east by providing them military defense.
   


8. 2003: Even though the USA may run out of oil and although we can't always rely on our middle-east allies nor the market nor efficiency nor new sources, we can always try to get better control to an endless supply of oil by invading other countries.
   


9. 2004: Maybe, just maybe the world will run out of oil, but we can always look to unconventional sources like tar sands and oil shale.
   


10. 2004 May 14, 8:00 AM: Even though the world looks like it may run out of oil and unconventional sources like tar sands and oil shale won't cut it, maybe there is a possibility that oil is always being replenished deep within the earth.
    


11. 2004 May 14, 8:05 AM: Nah. Strike that last one, maybe a mission to Mars would sell better?
    


12. Present: Even though the world looks like it may run out of oil and unconventional sources like tar sands and oil shale won't cut it, Bush with his oil industry experience, and Cheney with his energy plan and overall smarts will figure out how to use technology to get out of this predicament. Four more years!
    


13. Future: Even though the world looks like it may run out of oil and unconventional sources like tar sands and oil shale won't cut it, and there aren't any new energy ideas or trips to Mars on the horizon, let us embrace the religious fundamentalists in our ranks, so that we can dumb down the intellectual discourse and then our citizenry will act like nothing is wrong.