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Sunday, May 16, 2004

Retired oil execs mimic Herrnstein&Murray theory

References to Goodstein and Deffeyes in a CBS MarketWatch article.

I did some checking on Amazon reviews to the Deffeyes book. Interesting that some retired oil industry executives have nothing better to do than to bash the book (one John M. Ryan) -- gotta watch that pension.

The arguments against the Hubbert curve have similar origins; everyone who complains point to the asymmetric nature of the curve. In fact temporal causal phenomenom do not follow a true bell curve (causality prevents negative time, yet gaussian shapes have infinitely long tails in both directions). So the overall bell curve has more to do with the general shapes matching the laws of large numbers.

The critics have framed the argument as "asymmetrical inconsistencies". Eerily similar to the "flip flopping" framing argument in political circles. But what the critics always lose sight of: any downslope has repercussions.


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