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Friday, May 12, 2006

Norway would if they could

Any wonder that Norway should consider going the green route outlined by scandihoovian neighbor Sweden? Someone at peakoil.com recently posted updated Norway oil production data. The fact that Norway, along with the UK, release this information to the public, shows a lot of candor on their part. Commendable, yes, but it still appears that oil production continues to drop like a rock with the March '06 number.

For the model, I used the following extraction rate shock curve to match the earlier data above. If anything, the extraction rate may have increased beyond the conservative cutoff I originally applied, beyond a value of 0.24 depletion of available reserves per year. This means the time constant has essentially dropped well below 4 years.

Graphoilogy used the data to come up with a multiple-oil-field production profile view. The more I look at it, the more it reinforces the notion that a definite bifurcation occurred in production rates. Around 1991, extractive effort has to have ramped up considerably, which has served to sharpen the production profiles in the individual regions. Look closely as the early individual production curves show rather broad profiles (with significant reserve growth in the oldest field) while the later production curves consist of half-widths of just a few years.


Professor Blogger Big Gav said...

Wow - I just twinned the Sweden and Norway stories in my post tonight too.

As they say, great minds...

Of course, it could just be peak oil bloggers are now exhibiting ever greater levels of groupthink.

5:42 AM  

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