Peak Oil Blimp

For some reason, the above image posted in comments at The Oil Drum for Staniford's latest article seems ominously fitting. In any case, Stuart lists a bunch of pieces of circumstantial evidence pointing to a peak right now.

• There's a very good chance claimed OPEC reserves are exaggerated.
• World production stopped increasing in late 2004.
• Decline rates of existing production are very high
• Hubbert Linearization points to peak oil
• At least one major oil company is warning us (of peak)
• The price of oil keeps going up.
• There is no evidence of Saudi spare capacity
• There are geopolitical and climatic risks to the existing production level

The global oil shock model shows the same peak based on past discovery data. The cusp drops off like this assuming extraction rates don't continue to ramp up near term, while a continuing ramp-up will round the peak, either extending it a few years or creating a plateau, with an impending cliff highly likely. This also assumes that no oil company makes sudden large discoveries that come on-line quickly.

Any takers on when will we hear this sound bite from Bush, "I don't think anybody anticipated the peak of the oil". Get ready wingnut apologists, for semantically arguing the meaning of "overtopped". Sheezus, no such thing as a bad rationalization in the party of the Bush 'minionists.