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Sunday, March 02, 2008

Natural Gas Analysis

This chart from TOD poster Jon Friese brings up some interesting issues:

First of all, one rarely finds this kind of data for crude oil, where each year gets tallied separately. I figure the reason it doesn't show up very often arises because the maturation of oil wells do not correspond to a given year very concisely. A variable maturation time essentially pushes the actual production to the next few years so that the chart wouldn't have the same columnar contrast. On the other hand, the draw of a natural gas reservoir occurs immediately and so the yearly data shows up very strikingly.

The Oil Shock Model handles the analysis fairly well. I basically set the maturation level to zero years and tried to emulate the chart's look.

Overlay below

Not having the actual discovery data available, I used empirical fits to generate the individual curves. The base curve for the years prior to 1980 results in a curve that follows the relationship:

Base = K * (0.55 exp(-T/2) + 0.45 exp (-0.15*T/2))

This essentially gives a fast slope and a slower slope which approximates a reserve growth component that I have reported on before. The individual yearly production curves also show a similar behavior (here small t corresponds from the date of the :

Base = Gain * (0.9 exp(-t/2) + 0.1 exp (-0.1*t/2))

The slow portion contributes only 10% of the bulk of the growth, so the reserve growth doesn't amount for much.

The other piece of the fit involved the contribution of the Gain which basically generates the envolpe of the curve, starting from the initial point in the data collection at 1980.

Gain = (1 - 0.7 exp(-0.02*T))

This gain function basically demonstrates that continually greater amounts of Natural Gas get extracted per year but the trend does not show that a peak will arrive any time soon. It instead suggests that new wells get constructed to meet the demand for Texas. The yearly time constant for each year's output remains a pretty quick 2 years, so that when a drop-off in production occurs, it will happen fairly quickly.


Professor Blogger Vee said...

Youth action on Global Warming: Massachusetts Power Shift conference at Boston University


I am writing to you because I ran into your environmental blog and was
wondering if you would be interested in telling your readers about an
upcoming youth action event called Massachusetts Power Shift (MAPS).

MAPS is a three-day global warming and climate change conference to be
held at Boston University from April 11-14th. Saturday and Sunday will
consist of discussion panels from a variety of topics ranging from
alternative fuels to carbon caps. On that Monday, students will lobby
their senators to pass the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act.
Passing the GWSA, inclusive of a 20% cut in emissions by 2020, will be
a milestone for Massachusetts environmental policy.

Please consider spreading the word! Just let me know if you will post
an entry about it so I can send you more information and web
banners/fliers. Our website is http://www.masspowershift.org/

Thank you for you time.

Media & Marketing Volunteer
Massachusetts Power Shift Planning Committee

8:59 PM  
Professor Blogger @whut said...

Readers, please read the above comment.

Thank You.

10:56 PM  

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